The major storm wave over the Atlantic is failing to materialise – right in the middle of hurricane season. What sounds like good news comes with a catch that reaches all the way into our winter.
This is the time when the Atlantic weather maps should really be groaning under the weight of tropical storms. September is considered the most dangerous month of the entire hurricane season, the point at which the most powerful systems build year after year. But this year, something unusual is happening: it remains quiet.
Instead of the usual chain of named storms, the tropical Atlantic is looking remarkably subdued. The statistics speak for themselves – 2026 is heading towards a significantly below-average season, with fewer storms, fewer hurricanes and hardly any major systems.
Fewer storms than the calendar suggests
An average Atlantic year produces around 14 named storms, including seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. For 2026, expectations are noticeably lower: the range is seven to 13 named storms, two to six hurricanes and no more than two major hurricanes.
The probability of a below-normal season is now put at around 75 per cent – while the chances of an above-average year stand at a meagre five per cent. In other words: the quiet is no coincidence, but something the forecasts have accounted for.
The real reason lies 12,000 kilometres away
Anyone looking for the reason should not be looking at the Atlantic, but far across the Pacific. There, a climate switch has been flipped that controls weather patterns across half the
Original Record.
This archived record authored by ‘Helena Mottram’ at ‘METEORED (Your Weather)’ was recovered from data set:
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