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Seismologists’ analysis provides a very clear answer to the question that arose following the series of strong earthquakes that have shaken several parts of the world in recent weeks.
Today, global seismic networks record almost everything, international media immediately report the news and social media amplify the emotional response.Every time a strong earthquake strikes a region of the world, as has recently happened in Venezuela, Colombia and Indonesia, the same question inevitably resurfaces. Is global seismicity increasing? It is an understandable concern, fuelled by the speed at which news travels and the ability of social media to amplify every event.
But scientific data, when properly analysed using the scientific method, tell us a very different story.
Perception and reality
Until a few decades ago, an earthquake in remote areas such as Papua New Guinea or some Indonesian islands rarely made the front pages of Western newspapers. Today, global seismic networks record almost everything, international media immediately report the news and social media amplify the emotional response.
Added to this is the fear of tsunamis, still vivid after the tragedies of Sumatra in 2004 and Japan in 2011. The result is a distorted perception of an “increase” in seismicity.
Seismologists refer to recency bias (the tendency to give greater weight to recent events) and the frequency illusion (the feeling that a phenomenon is becoming more common simply because it is being discussed more often). A rigorous analysis of the figures, however, allows us to look beyond impressions.
USGS data: no upward trend
The National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology
Original Record.
This archived record authored by ‘Helena Mottram’ at ‘METEORED (Your Weather)’ was recovered from data set:
English