AMOC collapse: the major climate threat missing from almost every country’s adaptation plans

Only two of the 91 national adaptation plans examined mention the risk of an AMOC collapse. Yet this vast system of Atlantic currents could dramatically alter temperatures and rainfall in several regions around the world.

In Iceland, government officials have recently discussed a worrying scenario: what would happen if the major Atlantic current system slowed significantly or even collapsed?

A study published in Nature Sustainability reveals that only two of the 91 national adaptation plans submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) mention this risk. Neither of the two includes concrete measures to deal with a potential collapse.

A current system that redistributes heat around the world

At the heart of this concern is the AMOC, which stands for Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. This system transports warm surface waters northwards into the North Atlantic, before bringing colder waters back southwards at depth.

By redistributing heat, it helps regulate the global climate and influences temperatures and rainfall far beyond the Atlantic basin.

A recent study projects a 50% weakening by the end of the century under an intermediate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario. This figure describes a projected reduction in the …….