Rising temperatures allow the atmosphere to hold more moisture, which, combined with intensifying storms, should theoretically trigger more destructive downpours. However, when analysing climate model projections, researchers encounter a puzzling phenomenon: some models project much smaller increases in rainfall than thermodynamics alone would predict.
Tropical cyclone rainfall is determined by storm intensity, atmospheric moisture and the efficiency with which that moisture is converted into rainfall. Illustration for conceptual purposes only.In the context of global warming, scientists have anticipated that tropical cyclones (including typhoons and hurricanes) will produce more intense and frequent rainfall.
The underlying physics seems intuitive: rising temperatures allow the atmosphere to hold more moisture, which, combined with intensifying storms, should theoretically trigger more destructive downpours.
However, when analysing climate model projections, researchers encounter a puzzling phenomenon: some models project increases in rainfall that are much smaller than thermodynamics alone would predict.
This uncertainty has long made it difficult for the scientific community to accurately project future tropical cyclone rainfall and assess the associated flood risks.
Recently, a new study led by the University of Hong Kong (HKU) and Imperial College London (ICL) has uncovered a key missing piece of the puzzle: increasing atmospheric dryness.
Published in Nature Geoscience, the study reveals that while a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, it also becomes drier, suppressing rainfall and acting as a brake on tropical cyclone precipitation.
Increasing atmospheric unsaturation hinders cloud formation and accelerates evaporation
The team, comprising Professor Dazhi XI and Dr Jianan CHEN from the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences at
Original Record.
This archived record authored by ‘Helena Mottram’ at ‘METEORED (Your Weather)’ was recovered from data set:
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