The UN warns the world will exceed 1.5°C of warming

The planet is on course to exceed 1.5°C of warming before 2030, and the UN is proposing a Plan B to limit the overshoot and try to return to that target.

For years, the international climate objective has been clear: “to prevent the planet’s average temperature from rising by more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels”, a target established in the Paris Agreement.

However, the United Nations (UN) now acknowledges that it will no longer be possible to prevent the world from exceeding this threshold. This is outlined in the Emissions Gap Report 2026, published by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).

The UN’s new target: 1.8°C

UNEP is now proposing a pathway involving a temporary overshoot followed by a decline. In other words, the planet would exceed 1.5°C of warming, reach a peak and then attempt to return to that level or fall below it by 2100.

In the lowest-overshoot scenario analysed by the organisation, peak warming would reach between 1.7°C and 1.8°C by the middle of the century.

This new approach does not consider it inevitable that the planet will remain above 1.5°C for the …….