What’s the point of predicting El Niño well in advance if the most vulnerable still don’t have the means to act?

It is now possible to predict El Niño far enough in advance to prepare for its impacts. But between knowing that an event is coming and being able to protect against it, the gap remains enormous. Therefore, in 2026, what is at stake is as much social, economic, and political as it is meteorological.

The real challenge is no longer just forecasting El Niño, but making the forecast useful for those who are most exposed.

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon linked to interactions between the Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere. It generally occurs every 2 to 7 years and can last 9 to 12 months.

Its relatively slow evolution provides an opportunity for communities to prepare.

Planning ahead before the crisis arrives

According to the World Meteorological Organization, conditions are expected to worsen during the second half of 2026. Southern Africa, Central America, and parts of Asia and the Pacific could experience drier conditions, while the Horn of Africa faces a higher risk of rainfall and flooding.

However, the WMO has found no evidence that climate change is increasing the frequency of extreme El Niño events. On the other hand, the thermal background is changing: an event of this kind can add between 0.1 and 0.2 °C to a global temperature that has already risen by approximately 1.4 °C due to human-caused warming. A warmer atmosphere can also intensify torrential rainfall in areas where El Niño favors wetter conditions.

Markets have already begun to react

Expectations surrounding El Niño now extend well beyond meteorological centers: financial

Original Record.

This archived record authored by ‘Dainet Sierra’ at ‘METEORED (Your Weather)’ was recovered from data set:

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