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The following is a summary of a longer Carbon Brief analysis examining the likelihood of 2026 and 2027 becoming the warmest years in modern records, as a historic and potentially record-breaking El Niño event unfolds during 2026–2027.
The developing El Niño event is raising expectations of higher global temperatures, both this year and next. Image: PXHERE.com.El Niño is the warm phase of a recurring climate pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean that releases heat from the ocean into the atmosphere, temporarily raising global temperatures and altering rainfall patterns and extreme weather events around the world.
Carbon Brief’s State of the Climate report, published in April, estimated there was a 19% chance that 2026 would set a new global temperature record.
That probability has now risen to 35% – almost doubling in just four months – with virtually the entire increase driven by forecasts pointing to an increasingly intense El Niño.
Key findings from the first half of 2026
– The first six months of 2026 were the third warmest start to a year on record, with global temperatures around 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels, surpassed only by 2024 and 2025.
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While the first few months of the year ranked as the fourth and fifth warmest on record, May and June were the second warmest ever recorded, as El Niño conditions became firmly established.
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El Niño conditions developed in April and reached the threshold for a strong event in June, when the Niño 3.4 index reached 1.6°C. Of the 667 climate model simulations analysed by Carbon
Original Record.
This archived record authored by ‘Helena Mottram’ at ‘METEORED (Your Weather)’ was recovered from data set:
English