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El Niño and La Niña are powerful climate patterns in the Pacific Ocean that influence weather across the globe. New forecasts show increasing confidence that an El Niño will develop soon, and there are growing concerns it could be one of the strongest on record. How likely is this?
A potentially strong El Niño weather pattern is likely to emerge at the beginning of summer and continue through Northern Hemisphere winter, according to the latest forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
The latest weekly Niño-3.4 index value was +0.4°C, in line with the observed, widespread, and significantly above-average subsurface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific. Models are showing El Niño is likely to form as soon as next month.
Forecasters estimate there is around a 82% chance that El Niño conditions will emerge between May and July 2026.
Related articleAccording to experts at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, El Niño could emerge in May 2026
If that happens, it would likely bring erratic weather patterns and an additional boost to global temperatures.
What is an El
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