NOAA sticks with quieter hurricane season forecast – but don’t let your guard down

NOAA is sticking with its forecast for a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season, pointing to a strengthening El Niño that’s making it harder for storms to develop. Still, the agency says one landfalling hurricane is all it takes to make a season memorable.

NOAA’s updated outlook continues to call for fewer Atlantic storms than average, though experts stress that now is not the time to let your guard down.

NOAA isn’t changing its forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, and that’s actually good news. The agency continues to expect fewer storms than usual, thanks largely to a strengthening El Niño that’s making it harder for hurricanes to form. But there’s one message forecasters don’t want anyone to overlook: it only takes one storm to make it a dangerous season.

NOAA sees no reason to change its outlook

With the season now entering its busiest stretch, NOAA says the overall pattern is unfolding much as expected. El Niño has strengthened over the past few months, increasing confidence that conditions across the Atlantic will remain less favorable for tropical cyclone development.

The agency now puts the odds of a below-normal hurricane season at 75%, up from 55% in its preseason forecast. A near-normal season has a 20% chance, while the odds of an above-normal season have dropped to just 5%.NOAA’s latest outlook highlights the expected range of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes for the 2026 Atlantic season.In a

typical Atlantic season, about 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes form, so this year’s outlook

Original Record.

This archived record authored by ‘Dainet Sierra’ at ‘METEORED (Your Weather)’ was recovered from data set:

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